2007-10-18 Thu
中国电子商务尚处在发展的初期,这不光是因为目前的电子商务交易额占整个贸易额的比例只有0.8%,还有另一个重要理由,即网上购物还没有成为多数中国网民的普遍行为。根据CNNIC的调查报告,大约四分之三的中国网民使用过搜索引擎,却只有25.5%的网民有过网上购物体验,这一比例甚至远低于4年前的40.7%。而根据CNNIC去年的C2C调查报告,在对C2C接受度最高的北京、上海、广州三大城市中,有过C2C购物体验的用户也只占网民数量的16.2%。这说明,近期非常热闹的电子商务市场,其实也仍然还只是一个小众市场,它背后所隐藏着的,仍然是一个巨大的增量市场。
从2003年开始,淘宝向当时的绝对垄断者易趣发起挑战,靠的既不完全是所谓的免费策略,也不完全是强势公关或强势推广,当然更不是什么倒立者赢,而是淘宝紧紧地抓住了更大的增量市场。也就是说,淘宝的增长远远超过易趣的增长,以至于淘宝的规模很快就超过了占据九成市场时候的易趣。在一个增长迅速的市场上,比的是谁跑得更快,而不是过去的优势。
电子商务的市场规模,将超过网游、广告等目前主流的互联网收入来源,这几乎是毫无悬念的。而本质上,搜索引擎更应该是电子商务的工具,而非娱乐的工具。这一点,从百度和阿里巴巴极为相近的客户群判断,实际上百度和阿里巴巴有着最直接的竞争关系。这也是我在年初的一篇文章中所分析的,即使百度不做C2C,它也必然要和阿里巴巴在中小企业的电子商务上交火。所以,我不相信所谓为了刺激股市这种判断,我更愿意相信,百度做出如此重大的一个决定,一定是基于对自身优势的判断,以及对未来增长的长期规划。此外,还有一个重要原因,即防御性进攻。
如果说当初淘宝网的建立,是阿里巴巴的对eBay的防御性进攻,那么百度C2C业务,也可以看作是一种防御性进攻。这种防御性进攻,一方面,正面战场并非 自己的主战场,即使失守也不会对全局造成重大损失,但却可以有效抑制竞争对手的主要业务。另一方面,一旦这种防御性进攻奏效,很可能开辟全新战局,次要战 场被纳入主战场。至少在可预见的未来,百度的参战,将打乱淘宝建立盈利模式的规划。
而且,百度选择发布消息的时机也很微妙,恰好是阿里巴巴上市的敏感时期。这等于在向阿里巴巴的投资者暗示,百度可以扮演阿里巴巴的制约者的角色。这可能预示着,两家巨型互联网公司公开宣战,而且战火决不会被局限在C2C战场。
我大致同意麦田对百度电子商务模式的判断,但我却不太同意这是“社会化商务”重大利好的乐观看法。炮火连天的时候,一颗流弹就能要了你的命。当然,实力相当的企业之间的竞争,消费者会成为受益者。
现在还是只闻楼梯想,没见人下来。百度的C2C究竟有多少机会,关键还看产品做得怎么样,采用何种市场策略和运营策略,等等。
不到万不得已,一个Blog只提供一个RSS地址,会有很多的好处。当然,如果有2个Blog,使用两个独立的RSS也是很好的。因为有不少的Blogger的RSS没有提供全文,必须点击网页才可以阅读全文,这样RSS的作用则变成了更新提醒功能。比如我只关注某个Blog是否更新,只要刷新RSS阅读即可。但是如果Blogger把delicious的更新也并入到RSS中,则给我带来了不便。因为文章太多,所以并不是所有的delicious都是我关注的。
可见,RSS只提供此Blog正文的全文内容,比较方便用户。
我自己对以下内容比较感兴趣(GSeeker编译):
*首个Google官方blog出现在2004年5月,当时Google已宣布IPO,但未正式上市。一开始是打算每月更新一篇文章。但由于处于IPO沉默期,当时发布的每篇文章里的每个词,都经过了Google律师的仔细检查。
*Google官方blog里的所有文章都要事先经过有关的直接团队及一名公关人员审核通过才能发表。有关编辑人员会使用Google Docs共享及编辑blog文章的草稿。
继续.

At the 5 years of anniversary, I cannot ignore a great team that is behind the software I am using - the Six Apart team who created MovableType. My blog actually started with a trail run of MovableType (my first entry was about it. Then I love the software and I use it every day. It is the only software (besides operating system) that I use everyday. The great architecture, the powerful template system, and flexible archiving features really made this blog possible. More importantly, I am inspired by the team and have strong personal connection with them.
One of the tricky things about following eBay (EBAY) is fitting all the complex data points into a coherent picture. The company has three distinct units that sort of overlap, and is better than many about offering consistent data about each one. So even analysts and investors who have a good grasp on all the numbers are left to decide which numbers matter more.
We’re seeing some of that confusion at play in eBay’s stock following the release of its third-quarter results late Wednesday. The company posted a massive loss, but the stock rallied as much as 6 percent in after-hours trading because the bulk of that loss — the Skype writedown — was expected, and factoring it out showed eBay with good profit growth, not to mention strong revenues.
Today, eBay’s stock not only gave up those aftermarket gains, it closed down more than 6 percent.
Some analysts, including Goldman Sachs’ Anthony Noto, issued positive research notes on eBay, but the culprit seems to be a report from Deutsche Bank’s Jeetil Patel, who painted a “worst-case scenario” for the company. Though as Tech Trader Daily points out, that scenario isn’t reflected in Patel’s relatively sunny estimates.
Sometimes it seems eBay is the Chauncey Gardiner of stocks: You see in it whatever you want to see. Its marketplace is either constantly deteriorating or constantly being improved by management. PayPal is either getting killed by Google (GOOG) or is a reliable contributor to profit growth. Skype is either a huge fiasco or a huge giant about to wake up from its nap.
It’s helpful to keep in mind that eBay’s stock has risen 19 percent since its second-quarter earnings report, in July. There was the same dithering right after the announcement, but then investors acted as if they saw a bargain. Today’s decline may simply be investors taking profits in the face of uncertainty. eBay certainly has its share of challenges, but I’d be surprised if the bullish case doesn’t pan out over the next quarter at least.
在Blog Stats的紀錄當中,有一個Referral (即引導人入這網站的網頁)是從Google搜尋「Friendster 背景圖案」圖案而來。其實這沒甚麼特別,也沒有原因好大驚小怪。
奇就奇在,Google的搜尋結果並非指向我某一篇文章,而是引導用戶來以我的Blog內之搜尋功能找「推」這個字,從而找到合適的內容。為何是「推」呢?不知是不是近30日有6個人,用這Blog的搜尋功能找「推」字有關,從而Google就直接索引了「推」字的搜尋結果呢?
這會不會進一步證明了月初時的文章《Google的索引效率》,當中所提及Google的索引是與他們的Toolbar有關呢?
Jan’s Tech Blog, where technologies are explored and annotated.
Reports are flying all over the blogosphere today about "China blocking" more US based websites, including search engines, and in some cases redirecting traffic in China to Chinese search engines instead of Google and Yahoo.
The truth of the matter is probably not nearly so simple. As I understand it it's almost never as simple as "China is blocking X.Y.Z websites". It depends on which ISP you're using, there are technical obstacles to good service and there's a maze of face-to-face meetings that go on in order to plan and enact any such censorship, redirects, etc. It's highly unlikely that there is any nationwide policy suddenly put into place that effects internet users all across that huge nation. There are certainly a few big policies that are self-enforced by online service providers, but many of the comments being left on today's China coverage denying nation-wide censorship are probably the honest truth.
Today's news coverage itself deserves some serious scrutiny.
David Feng at BlogNation tests a number of sites from inside China and says access is relatively unchanged. The service GreatFireWallofChina.org purports to act as a proxy for testing but tells me that Baidu is inaccessible in China, so much for that. There are in fact probably few nation-wide policies enforced online in China and even if there were it would be hard to verify them.
Some of the language of "economic attack" may be thinly veiled jingoism and calls to "boycott the Olympics" are pretty tasteless in light of the true Chinese crimes against humanity that long term human rights activists have been citing for withdrawal from the event. Darfur? Loud voices calling for economic sanctions in response to the alleged activities of the Western world's economic challengers sound like fair-weather friends of free speech to me.
Online freedom in China is important, but online accuracy is important everywhere.
【博猪按】这是一位完全没有张爱玲小说阅读北京的广州市男青年前往香港观看《色,戒》后的观后感,有些地方文字显得很糙,但也因为这样,尤为珍贵。警告:内容含有剧透,请自行决定是否继续阅读
标题:《三级片---色戒》
来源:泡网
作者:凌晨2点的灯

本打算以“大牌明星出演的三级片”或“梁朝伟的三片”,又或者其他类似名称来命名的,但都感觉有点牵强。但是,这是俺三十来年来看的第一部正宗的三级片,还带入场查证的,而且还是俺的偶像梁兄朝伟主演。
色戒据说是由张爱玲的小说改编,再加上李安,梁朝伟等大牌参合,张迷们早就议论纷纷妖言惑众者甚,说如何如何的。俺对这些基本一无所知,因为老婆是个张迷,又听说有三级限制,再又刚好要去香港。然后顺理成章的进了电影院,一看之下,此行不虚,果真三级是也。
先附自作香港观影攻略。
此段时间(10月)正是色戒上影档期,要去的趁早,啥时候结束俺不知道。如何去香港不管俺事,省略不计。香港院线几多,也不清楚,反正俺们先打算去据说档次还不错的铜锣湾的时代广场看,结果当天(周一)晚上的内地黄金一般的时段啥电影也没有,买票的大妈说要看请早,第二天的下午来。看来有钱人就是不一样,热门电影想不放就不放,你爱看不看。后来第二天去了海港城的嘉禾,下午场,60元港纸,比广州天河城的飞扬还便宜,人不多,内地观众占多数吧,排队时身后东北妞的东北话极亲切。总而言之,要去香港看的同学们注意搞清放映时间和地点,免得耽误了行程。此间影院效果不错,不敢说很好,但绝对不差。不论什么电影,俺觉得应该是值回票价鸟。
以上攻略仅是谨慎提醒,其实俺真正想说的是,这是正宗三级片,无删节,赶紧去香港看,犹豫个球啊。
废话少叙,言归色戒。
开场便是日伪时期的旧上海,梁兄朝伟的阴险造型出场奠定他的角色基调,让观众先入为主。然后是抗日青年的爱国情绪渲染,汤小姐的话剧形象让俺觉得李安同学也是一个抗日分子,拥有当年文艺青年的满腔热情。要是生在当年,也是要万水千山的去鲁艺鸟。
接下来情节步入正题,女间谍和特务头子,也即汤小姐和梁兄朝伟一步一步的互相靠近。在正式靠近之前,有2个情节俺觉得值得一提。一是戏外感受,汤小姐在西餐厅勾引梁兄朝伟的戏,眼神,面部表情,手,身段等,充分证明了汤小姐有演技,不是三级花瓶。二是戏内感受,汤小姐为了革命,主动和革命同志发生性爱关系,锻炼性交技巧,以便正式和特务头子梁兄朝伟办事的时候不露出处女身段。这个桥段俺觉得决定了后续故事走向。当梁兄朝伟的老婆突然电话说要回上海的时候,汤小姐表现的失望急迫慌张和无奈,和电话旁的革命小青年的失望无奈有很大的不同。革命计划毁于一旦的慌张失望占10%,对革命献身的不甘无奈占50%,对梁兄朝伟的急迫和好奇心占40%。就是这要命的40%啊,好奇害死猫,决定了结局,也奠定这个故事的名字叫色和戒。
再接下来,汤小姐为革命献出了处女身,却又失去了革命的战场。这种不甘心让汤小姐三年后重出江湖再会梁兄。这种“老娘为你破了处,不和你干一炮死也不瞑目”的心态,决定了汤小姐再次革命的动机已经不纯鸟。按照中学生的逻辑,革命失败是不可避免的。
一般情况下,到了这个时候,电影或戏剧的元素应该都表现出来了,下面都是按部就班的发展,聪明的观众们都能猜到结局。俺不知道是张爱玲她老人家高明还是李安他小老人家的高明(声明,俺没看过原著),接下来的戏,其实才是本部电影的主旨。
前面提到,梁兄朝伟这个角色是阴险造型,但如果你先入为主,那你就错鸟。人都有2面性,特务头子也是人。好比你喜欢端庄明媚的淑女,也可能更喜欢浪荡风骚的少妇。梁兄朝伟这个特务头子也有柔弱细腻纯真的一面。在高压紧张的社会工作之外,也欢喜一个为爱而爱的出墙红杏。于是,在强暴(第一回,初次性交)、柔情(第二回,温柔的性交)、感情(第三回,汤要回香港及后面的性交)、爱情(第四幕,送钻戒)的层叠起伏中,情感,或者说是爱情,成为了2关系的纽带。
革命?生命早已不能承受革命之重鸟。
电影看到这个时候,俺突然想起,这是张爱玲的作品,这是个感情片。社会背景只是一个装饰,情感才是主角。人性的情感和现实无关,原始社会,或者资本主义,你和我都要谈情说爱。于是,鸽子蛋般的钻戒打败了革命的豪情,日伪汉奸战胜了爱国同志。留下了色和戒,留给革命的同志和爱情的男女去思考。
WHO AM I? 又,WHAI'S LOVE?
最后,再说一个情节,在汤小姐初次脱离革命队伍的当晚,发生了血腥的暴力场景。后来,所有参与的,经过了血与火考验的人,都成了忠贞的革命战士,唯一一个没历练血与火的人,汤小姐,她的软弱与不坚定,导致了战斗的失败。
最最后,题外话,关于三级片。俺看过的色情片也不少,多数是网络上的流传或者盗版碟,但是俺所熟悉的明星亲自出演的没有。这一次,色戒,不仅仅可以看到汤唯的裸体,过得去的身段,一般水准的波,浓密的阴毛,怪异的腋毛,光滑的屁股,还可以看到梁兄朝伟的JB蛋,没错,不是JB,是JB蛋。以至于俺在香港报摊上看到:梁朝伟和汤唯,到底有没有打真军?这真一个伪哈姆雷特式的问题啊。
最最最后,汤唯很有潜力。
最最最最后,OVER
0:01 2007-10-19 于 广州
“五虎将”大家都熟,其中四虎最近有《兄弟》上映,另一虎则有《色戒》。于是,有媒体炒:若二选一,你看哪个?
混过录像厅的兄弟,相信大部分亲“水浒”、远“红楼”。好歹这次四虎再聚首拍的也是港片最擅长的警匪黑帮型,遥想当年为其火爆激烈的江湖气大呼过瘾,又见如今宣传势头噱头都够,怎不抱有期待?
但,事实告诉我们,观《兄弟》不仅心态要摆正,而且不要相信宣传——别看该片明星云集(除了四虎,尚有王志文、于荣光、黄奕、金燕玲、方平、王青、林雪、张兆辉、林家栋、连晋),实际至多只能算个中等制作,全片没有像样的大场面,两场泰国枪战戏明显小格局。剧情虽是兄弟相疑黑帮火拼的老套,却不似当年港片那样搞足气势,仅有开篇王志文、苗侨伟两代父子先后跟几个大佬“话事”似模似样,之后则尽显寒酸:两位大哥各有一个保镖,且自己开车,不见小弟跟随。泰国火拼也要老大亲自出马,双方合计更是不过五个人,一场简单追车几声空洞枪响便结束战斗,忆及昔日华仔《冲击!天子门生》动辄数百人黑帮械斗的火爆,不由唏嘘!
刘德华与编导们很聪明,将《兄弟》时代背景设定九七回归之前,便可从容玩转黑帮题材;虽然未脱旧时同类港片框架,却可利用“四虎”阵容、港片余威、怀旧情绪挑起内地观众兴趣。只可惜,以今日眼光,《兄弟》无论桥段还是观念,都停留在20年前:一个“玄武门”的凶卦居然成了一对兄弟东西两隔互生猜忌的导火索?现代还有多少观众会认同?
导演赵崇基拍片风格向来不温不火,叙事擅长三段式结构,此番执导《兄弟》亦只注重铺陈剧情,主线沉闷,枝叶参差(刘德华演警察配角最随意有趣,于荣光、黄奕的北大恋情最无稽可笑),火爆不足,拖沓有余。或许成功刻画出苗侨伟(演技不错)先隐忍后设局、貌似算计兄弟实则重视亲情的“大哥”形象,但因剧本问题,观众很难理解他为弟弟洗底的手段为何居然是栽赃陷害?如果这样做是因为自己时日不多,或者借此增长弟弟的阅历经验(“不要相信任何人,包括亲人和兄弟”)尽管说得通,却无疑也是最笨的方法。
显然,《兄弟》不是我们预期的那种火爆港产黑帮片,毕竟导演有些温吞,毕竟剧本有点平庸,毕竟本片并非如宣传所说的大制作,毕竟它似乎更注重内地市场。当然,《兄弟》亦不乏可圈可点之处,至少成本低却制作精良,至少够老套却保持诚意,若摆正心态,别抱过高期待,只把《兄弟》当成普通的中等制作,还是颇有水准的。至于当年充斥港片的江湖气、一味火爆不顾剧情的疯魔劲,其实最近已经很少见到了,若真怀念,不如重看《五虎将之决裂》啦。
Funny how things seem to happen in threes sometimes
- I read this blog entry by Seth Godin last night, it summed up lots of things I had been thinking about.
- That was after I spoke at American University, at their Social Networking and Business class. It went well - we talked about (among many other things) Seth's blog, interviewing, knowledge (smarts, intelligence).
- And that was after I wrote this about interviewing.
and then last night, Nicole Melander (the professor of the class) sent me a link pointing to a trailer for a movie a friend of hers is making about (sad state of) education in the US. And they are all related - around the theme of:
How to get ahead and be successful.
In the AskTom interview question referenced above, I basically said "I don't have a checklist of factoids one needs to have remembered when interviewing". Rather, I'd like to see them be "smart", conversant, generally intelligent, engaging, sharp - creative. If they can dryly regurgitate factoids about the database, a programming language, a software package - whatever, not interesting. If they are conversant and are creative, the conversation will flow and their ideas and thoughts will impress (or not, that's the point).
I might fail some peoples interview (the ones that want to have factoids spit back at them) - simply because I haven't remembered the factoid they thought was most important. Never mind that I know how to find that factoid out (really fast). I believe people should understand how things work - and then be able to derive from that lots of specific solutions, or at least be able to hypothesize how something will work - and then be able to construct a simple test (benchmark) to test that idea out.
When I was talking to Nicole's class - I basically said the same thing, they had questions about the interview process and how much the resume counted, how much the interview counted. My response was that the resume is needed to get past the check list people, the human resources recruiter who is not knowledgeable in the field they are recruiting for - but rather has a checklist to satisfy. After that, the resume was a piece of paper the interviewer would scan before the interview to generate a list of talking points. After that, the resume was just a piece of paper - it was all about the interview and being "sharp".
And that was exactly the crux of Seth's blog:
I don't know about you, but when I hire someone, or go to the doctor or the architect or an engineer, I could care less about how good they are at memorizing or looking up facts. I want them to be great at synthesizing ideas, the faster and more insightfully, the better
I agreed with Seth that tools like Wikipedia should not only be permitted in schooling, they should be encouraged. But, as a good friend wrote me while talking about this:
The only thing I can think of that MIGHT be the reason - and I'm not defending the reason ... just trying to understand the ban, per se - is that people automatically look at encyclopedias as facts. Wikipedia ... cut and paste ... and presto ... your term paper's done the teachers probably got tired of it.
But that goes back to what Seth and I were saying/thinking - Seth's blog said it nice and succinctly:
I want them to be great at synthesizing ideas, the faster and more insightfully, the better
Wikipedia is just a single tool, one of thousands. The students should be taught to use as many tools as possible, simultaneously. They should not be prevented from using any. They should be challenged to prove that what they 'synthesize' is true - via attribution in their write up, as well as good old fashioned fact checking.
When I'm writing something technical - I use many 'tools' to get it right. I take the ideas, concepts, facts - from many sources and put them all together in a different way (add value). And check the facts
That is what it is all about
by Anderson Silva and Steve ‘Ashcrow’ Milner
Synergy is an open source project that allows you to share a keyboard and a mouse among several different computers, each connected to some sort of monitor, without any extra hardware (i.e. KVM switches). Synergy runs over the network and can be used with several different operating systems.
Synergy runs as a client/server application, where the server is the computer that will have the keyboard and mouse attached to it, and all others will connect as clients. Switching from one display to another is only a matter of moving the mouse to the edge of the screen, and Synergy will detect the mouse pointer leaving one screen and entering another.
Advantages of using Synergy
- You can copy and paste between computers since Synergy merges clipboards across the systems.
- It synchronizes screen savers (lock screens), so they start up at the same time.
- If you have an old computer or laptop, you can use it as a Synergy client through an SSH session, and you can make your multi-computer environment behave like a multi-display workstation.
Installing Synergy on Fedora machines
As root:
yum install synergy
Setting up Synergy as the server
Create a config file called synergy.conf (you may place it in /etc or in ~/.synergy.conf). Below is a basic example of the synergy.conf file that configures a client workstation to the right of the server. Notice that under the options section, we have turned on the screensaver synchronization.
section: options
screenSaverSync = true
end
section: screens
server.hostname:
client.hostname:
end
section: links
server.hostname:
right = client.hostname
client.hostname:
left = server.hostname
end
The screens sections defines what screens are available. In the links section, the screens are set up relative to each other.
You can find more detailed configuration options at Synergy’s configuration file format page.
Starting up Synergy as the server
As your regular (non-root) user, start the server:
synergys --config /etc/synergy.conf
Alternatively, you can write or use a script like the one found at http://stevemilner.org/media/blog-images/synergy. The Synergy web site also has a dedicated session for auto-starting the Synergy server on different platforms.
Setting up Synergy as the client
- Make sure you have installed the Synergy package on your client machines just like you did on the server.
- Make sure your client and server have a defined hostname other than localhost.
- Make sure you are logged in to your X environment.
- Don’t run synergyc as root
- Open a terminal and start up the client:
synergyc -f server.hostname
If the connection is successful, you will see the message below as part of the output from the connections:
NOTE: synergyc.cpp,247: connected to server
If the connection fails, the client will keep trying to re-connect a few more times, but we recommend you look at Synergy’s troubleshooting page.
Once you have successfully connected the client and the server, you can remove the -f option from the synergyc command, and it will run as a background process on your computer.
Firewall
As with any good server-client application, it is important to remember that you may need to configure your firewall to allow the connections between synergys and synergyc to be established. Synergy runs on port 24800 by default, but by using the -a option, you can customize the server to listen on a different socket.
Privacy
Note that if you will be using Synergy over a network that is shared with other users, you may want to look into wrapping your usage with stunnel or SSH.
Similar projects
Synergy is not the only project for sharing a keyboard and mouse! If Synergy doesn’t meet your needs, check out x2x or the upcoming mango lassi.
Conclusion
With Synergy set up and installed, you no longer have to envy coworkers with multi-monitor setups, and you will be able to breathe new life into your old computers and displays.
Acknowledgments
Anderson and Steve would like to thank Brenton Leanhardt for catching a couple of bugs on this article. Thanks, man!
For more information visit http://synergy2.sourceforge.net/.
©作者:Fenng 发布在 dbanotes.net
花到三春颜色消,月过十五光明少
--轮回乐队《月残花落》
现在的 Web 2.0 站点,如果没有提供 Widget ,你都不好意思。Widget 也是能很好衡量一个站点服务的一个指标。前前后后,我这个 Blog 上也算用过不少家的 Widget 了,简单的给这些站点提几个小意见。
1) 界面 ,注意界面
Widget 一般只会占据 Blog 页面的一角,如果 UI 过不去的话,怕是没有几个人喜欢用。如果 Widget 输出内容没有拿的出手的 用户界面,还不如不提供了。
3) 性能,注意性能
如果性能太差或者站点根本支撑不了用户带来的 PV 压力,还请三思而行。Qos 总要考虑一下嘛。如果在提供脚本的同时能够提供一个页面放置指导建议,还是会让用户心生好感的。
3) Logo, 注意 Logo
Logo 当然重要,但是尺寸要适可而止。要看反面例子的话,去看看(以前)饭否的 Widget 输出的 Logo 就知道了(现在似乎调整小了)。Logo 当然重要,但最好不要喧宾夺主。输出内容是主,Logo 只是“宾”。
4) 空间,注意空间
Widget 在页面上一般也就占个豆腐块大的地方。内容布局还是要尽量合理。太紧凑或者太稀疏都不好。若邻提供的 Widget 布局就不怎么好。
5) 素质,注意素质
有的 Widget 时不时的偷梁换柱,夹杂一点私货:广告。这一点 Donews 以前就干过。当然,现在那个服务早没戏了。
暂时想到这么多,谁对这些 Widget 服务有意见请补充!
--EOF--
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1、昨天下午,传出了百度C2C的消息,一天之内炸开了锅;
电子商务是互联网盈利模式的一个大趋势。电子商务网站30%以上的流量是来自于搜索引擎;百度有稳定的黏度很高的社区用户,有中国最大的流量,傻子才会不染指这个市场。
百度有庞大的和阿里重叠的客户群,不向阿里开火难道还等着阿里打过来不成?在阿里上市的前夕“口头”开火,意图明显,效果不错。
2、百度的加入无疑会成为中国互联网刚刚起步的电子商务领域重头戏。我更关心百度如何运作这个产品,如何搞定支付和安全的问题。
独立的电子商务产品?还是捆绑在社区战略上的又一个“电子商务社区”?如何跟搜索和贴吧作关联,以及是否会开动“商务搜索”?
3、很多人认为百度此举会让阿里很紧张,认为淘宝的“欢迎”很虚伪和无奈。我不赞成。
百度此举的目标是瞄准阿里固然没错,但阿里应该是欢迎的。淘宝已经70%以上份额了,成为老百姓心目中电子商务的代名词。百度一加入会先跟2、3名打起来,淘宝收的是现成粮食;就好像百度希望yahoo、sogo在搜索上猛掐一样,掐越厉害其实越是在给自己作推广。
4、没有追赶也没有进步,让刘翔和我赛100跨栏估计他进不了15秒。
淘宝估计早就看着拍拍不爽了,一家独大是很不利于自己发展的,看着对手不争气自己只能干着急。如果没有慧聪和全球,阿里上市也不会搞的如此NB。百度搞进来才会让这块蛋糕变的更大,更凸显淘宝价值。万一百度一年之内杀到30%,那么纳斯达克该求着淘宝去上市了;
5、百度加入后麻烦最大的应该是当当卓越之流。化妆品和音乐是利润最大的两块,百度有MP3的基础,估计早就看着大洋彼岸的ITUNES流口水了。数字和书籍的市场百度应该会重拳出击。
6、淘宝聚集了那么多花钱的人,他的支付宝更是肥的流油。虽然淘宝在尝试如何更加直接的赚钱,但我相信他们根本不会着急这个事情。
阿里巴巴的上市即满足了资本市场的要求,也为淘宝搞到了更多发展的钱,淘宝人现在想更多的估计是:如何把产品搞的更好,如何让淘宝的盘子铺的更开。
.
.
ps:
已经离开百度很久,C2C的事情我丝毫不知,以上言论纯个人观点没有任何内部信息成份。
以前我写过一篇Blog介绍全国的个人信用信息基础数据库。
那么这个数据库到底有没有在发挥作用呢?
昨天中午,正在吃饭的时候,一个上海的朋友打电话过来问:
那个信用数据库是在你那里么?
他又进一步解释说:
我买房子,要贷款,可是银行查了信用数据库,说我欠20块钱,我想知道我是欠哪个银行的?
然后他又说:
我在网上找到你的电话,你能告诉我么?
这时候我就完全明白了,我曾经的这篇文章使得他找到了我。
而那个数据库当然不是我的了:)
于是我告诉他,那个数据库是中国人民银行的,他应该向中国人民银行咨询。
那么看来,这个数据库是在发挥作用,只不过还不够完善。
类似的,经常接到一些意外的电话,记得有一次接到一个电话问:你这是皇家粮仓么?
我说不是,但是我去过那里。
看来网络的力量是伟大的。
-The End-
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本文网址:http://www.eygle.com/archives/2007/10/credit_database_using.html
2007-10-17 Wed
2007-10-16 Tue
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